How to Spot Value: Calculating the “Fair Price” of a Bet
To find +EV, you must first find the Fair Odds. Bookmakers add a “margin” to their odds (usually 4–7%). To see the true probability, you have to strip that margin away.
The Formula:
If a match has odds of 1.90 for both Side A and Side B, the bookie is saying both have a 50% chance ($1 / 1.90 = 52.6\%$ per side—the extra 5.2% is their profit).
If our data shows the true probability is 55%, the “Fair Odds” should be 1.81. If we can find that team at 2.00, we have found a massive +EV opportunity. We do this math for every tip we post so you don’t have to.
